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Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative
Part 1

First Earthquakes and Megacities Workshop
September 1 - 4, 1997, Seeheim, Germany

Introduction
Brief Summary of Sessions
Outcomes of the Workshop
Concluding Remarks

Introduction

The First Earthquakes and Megacities Workshop was held in Seeheim, Germany from September 1 to 4, 1997. A total of 95 participants from 30 countries attended the event. The principal goal of the workshop was to define a multi-component program of interdisciplinary research, social learning and knowledge sharing aimed at mitigating earthquake risk to megacities. Representatives from the following organisations were present:

United Nations (UN) Agencies And Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO's)
International Secretariat of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR),
United Nations Educational, Social and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO),
United Nations Center for Regional Development (UNCRD),
United Nations Development Program (UNDP),
United Nations University (UNU),
World Health Organization (WHO),
World Association of Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM)
Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies,
Centro de Coodinacion para la Prevencion de Desastres Naturales en Centro America
Network for Social Studies on Disaster Prevention in Latin America (LARED).

Funding Agencies

European Science Foundation (ESF),
US National Science Foundation (NSF),
US Geological Survey (USGS),
German Science Foundation (DFG).

International and National Scientific, Engineering and Social Science Organisations

International Council of Scientific Unions - Spec. Committee on the IDNDR (ICSU/SC-IDNDR),
Inter-Union Commission on the Lithosphere (ICL) / International Lithosphere Program (ILP),
World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI),
International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior (IASPEI),
International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI),
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG),
International Geographical Union (IGU),
World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO),
International Association of Earthquake Engineering (IAEE),
Intern. Assoc. Engineering Geologists (IAEG) / Internat. Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS),
State Seismological Bureau of China (SSB),
National Institute of Earth Sciences and Disaster Prevention of Japan (NIED).

Private Companies

Risk Management Solutions
Swiss Re
Zurich Re

In addition to the above, many countries, major cities, government agencies, universities and other organisations were represented at the workshop. Expertise among attendees spanned the earth sciences (geology, geophysics, seismology), engineering (civil, structural, mechanical), social sciences (geography, urban planning, economics, political science), emergency management (planning, response) and emergency medicine. Workshop participants received comprehensive sets of extended abstracts that covered the critical material presented by each speaker.

Brief Summary of Sessions

Speakers represented about 17 scientific and technical organizations. In his keynote introductory address, Professor Herman Verstappen, Chairman of the ICSU/SC-IDNDR, described past and current efforts of the IDNDR. He emphasized the importance of interdisciplinary approaches to resolving problems associated with megacities and natural disasters. Brief reviews were then presented on the earth science, engineering, social science and emergency management aspects of earthquakes and megacities. A twenty-member panel discussion followed with each panelist providing an introduction to his/her organisation. Current programs and specific projects related to reducing earthquake risk to megacities were described.

The workshop program continued with five topic-based and three case-study sessions in which the complexity of the subject and challenges for the researchers and practitioners were highlighted. Experts described the latest results on relevant research in the (i) earth sciences, (ii) engineering, (iii) socio-economics, (iv) preparedness and recovery, and (v) new technologies and multidisciplinary approaches. Case studies were presented for large urban centers in China, Colombia, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Philippines, Romania, Turkey and the United States. Each oral contribution was followed by a lively question-and-answer period.

Outcomes of the Workshop

On the final day of the workshop, participants were divided into two groups charged with reviewing the most significant issues raised during the workshop and with proposing a scope and framework for future activities. The discussions focused on two primary issues:

defining topics for multidisciplinary research pertinent to earthquake risk and megacities;
determining the appropriate channels for undertaking research and for sharing and exchanging knowledge between the different "stakeholders".

The results of the working group discussions can be synthesized in terms of four components:

a suggested framework for the coordination of future research and activities related to earthquakes and megacities;
a short-to medium-term action plan to "jump-start" activities;
a unifying set of multidisciplinary research themes;
an agenda for multidisciplinary research topics on megacities.

Details of these components are provided below.

Component 1: Suggested Framework for the Coordination of Future Research Activities

The Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI) was proposed as an interdisciplinary program with participation of organizations and individuals involved in the natural sciences, engineering, social sciences and emergency response. UNESCO has, in principle, agreed to provide the international umbrella under which EMI would operate. Activities of EMI would be coordinated by the EMI Secretariat. ILP and WSSI will provide interim funding to the provisional EMI Secretariat at a rate of $5Ê000/year from each organization. Professor Friedemann Wenzel (University of Karlsruhe, Germany) and Dr. Fouad Bendimerad (RMS, USA) will represent ILP and WSSI in the provisional EMI Secretariat.

An immediate goal of the provisional EMI Secretariat is to undertake a series of consultations in order to consolidate the foundations of EMI and to gather opinions on its scope and mission. Other tasks include coordinating the short- to medium-term actions described in component 2 below and developing a specific proposal that includes details of the operational structure of EMI, its mission and its tasks. Before the end of November, 1997, this proposal will be presented to UNESCO, UNCRD, UNDP, UNU, WHO, WADEM, ICSU, ICSU/SC-IDNDR, ILP, WSSI, IUGG, IGU, WFEO, IAEG/IUGS and METROPOLIS. After appropriate revision, the proposal will then be circulated broadly for review by other organizations and individuals.

Component 2: Short- to Medium-Term Action Plan

A package of short- to medium-term actions aimed at maintaining the momentum generated at the workshop and reacting to the workshop action items was suggested. The provisional EMI Secretariat was charged with coordinating of the following actions:

establishing EMI's Secretariat and clarifying the plan of actions suggested by the workshop participants;
seeking funding from appropriate organizations to run the EMI's Secretariat and to undertake activities;
developing means for improving communication and knowledge sharing. Workshop participants emphasized the key role of communication. It was generally agreed that researchers working in different fields must not only improve their level of interaction in multidisciplinary forums, but must also learn to share better knowledge with emergency planners and managers, politicians, the media and the general public. Specific actions would include:
initiating an "Earthquakes and Megacities" page on the World-Wide Web (http://www-megacities.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/),
considering issues related to publishing an Earthquakes and Megacities newsletter (scope, cost, distribution, etc.),
working with UNU to ensure rapid publication and wide distribution of a reviewed set of proceedings (UNU has agreed, in principle, to fund such an enterprise),
organizing a follow-up "Earthquakes and Megacities" workshop to be held in a megacity, preferably in a developing country;
developing a new European Science Foundation program aimed at producing damage and loss scenarios for large urban centers within Europe, including the Mediterranean area (European geoscientists and engineers met on the evening of September 2, 1997, to establish general guidelines for such a proposal, a first version of which has been submitted to ESF).
determining the viability of initiating a twin city program, whereby personnel from large cities with advanced knowledge on mitigation procedures would provide information and share their knowledge with personnel from cities that do not have a similar level of experience and/or expertise;
exploring the potential for promoting regional centers that provide expertise to large areas and that builds partnerships with managers of large metropolitan centers, international developing agencies and risk mitigation advocates;
promoting high impact studies that bring together seismic experts, local practitioners and policy makers of an urban area to discuss earthquake risk and risk mitigation possibilities.

Component 3: Unifying Multidisciplinary Research Themes

Participants defined a number of multidisciplinary research themes related to earthquakes and megacities that can be addressed in the near future and that have the potential to significantly reduce risk:

Theme 1: developing a set of assessment tools for urban planners and emergency managers to facilitate the implementation of measures to mitigate earthquake risk; these tools might include inexpensive and reliable early warning systems, rapid damage assessment strategies and standardized approaches to loss estimation;
Theme 2: studying earthquake constraints on the long-term sustainability of megacities - these constraints must account for the risk, economic and social conditions that define a megacity; perform comparative analysis of megacities based on these conditions;
Theme 3: investigating the technical, social, political, historical and economic factors that would allow the integration of earthquake mitigation measures in urban planning policy through voluntary actions, legislation, education, training and/or cultural attitude changes; determine those actions that could have a high cost-benefit return;
Theme 4: exploring the role of international development agencies and their programs in earthquake mitigation for the purpose of identifying mechanisms that would allow greater transfer of research results into practice.

Component 4: Multidisciplinary Research Topics

Numerous research topics to be given specific attention in the context of earthquake risk to megacities were proposed. These topics, most of which relate to issues listed in Themes 1 to 4 above, may be grouped into three broad subject areas:

Subject Area 1: Assessing Earthquake Hazard and Ground Motion

collecting seismicity and appropriate geotechnical data, including information on historical seismology and paleoseismology;
encouraging the installation of seismographic and strong-motion networks for establishing: (i) seismicity patterns (used to estimate time-dependent seismic hazard), (ii)Êearly warning systems, (iii) methodologies for estimating the distribution of post-event damage severity, (iv) correlations between ground motion and building damage;
developing seismic zonation maps for major metropolitan areas of the world;
modeling ground motions;
making geodetic measurements of strain accumulation using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Global Positioning Systems (GPS).

Subject Area 2: Study of Urban Vulnerabilities

creating a "catalog" of relevant knowledge for each megacity and developing an earthquake risk classification "index" to help communicate the levels of risk that affect each city;
performing for each susceptible megacity a standardized inventory of buildings, lifelines, transportation systems and critical facilities;
developing methodologies for estimating damage and loss by employing network (or system) representations of a megacity's infrastructure to improve our understanding of its vulnerability to inter-dependencies of failures (e.g. inter-dependencies of critical facilities on lifeline systems);
reviewing the effectiveness of building codes and their implementation;
modeling disaster scenarios to check emergency response capabilities and readiness.

Subject Area 3: Study of Social and Political Awareness and Preparedness

examining the effects of cultural differences in perceptions and responses to risk;
studying the societal and political aspects of megacities (e.g. role played by shanty towns and squatters);
studying historical development patterns and land use regulations to determine viable ways for incorporating mitigation into public policy planning at different government levels - determine the impact of incentives, sanctions and other "instruments".

Subject Area 4: Mitigation Actions

designing educational programs aimed at earthquake preparedness and earthquake awareness - these programs should target such diverse audiences as emergency planners, policy makers and the general public;
training and mobilizing local interest groups in order to enhance local capacities, sustain awareness and increase community participation;
implementing procedures to protect cultural heritage items and monuments;
developing new construction methodologies for non-engineered buildings and new training programs for local builders;
enhancing seismic code provisions to encourage cost-effective retrofitting of buildings.

Concluding Remarks

The First Earthquakes and Megacities Workshop was one of many reactions to the 1990 United Nations declaration of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), the 1993 Aichi/Nagoya Conference and the 1994 Yokohama World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction.

Workshop participants consider that at the end of the twentieth century and completion of the IDNDR, there needs to be a global movement behind a basic human right to security from preventable suffering due to disasters such as earthquakes. This should be similar to the mass demand for public health improvements and primary health care that arose in the 19th and early 20th centuries, the popular movement against environmental pollution in the late-20th century, and the various movements for nuclear disarmament and the rights of women and children. Social learning and communication can facilitate coordinated scientific and technical contributions toward such a global endeavor.

The success of the Seeheim workshop was due in large part to the contributions of the individual participants. Nevertheless, this gathering would not have been possible without the generous financial support of the following sponsoring agencies: (a) European Science Foundation (ESF), (b) International Council of Scientific Unions - Special Committee on the IDNDR (ICSU/SC-IDNDR), (c) United Nations University (UNU), (d) Commission of European Communities (CEC), (e) International Lithosphere Program (ILP), (f) World Seismic Safety Initiative (WSSI), (g) State Seismological Bureau of China (SSB), and (h) International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth Interior (IASPEI). Significant in-kind support was provided by the (i) International Association of Earthquake Engineering (IAEE), (j)ÊInternational Geographical Union (IGU), (k) Karlsruhe University, (l) National Institute of Earth Sciences and Disaster Prevention of Japan (NIED), (m) Risk Management Solutions (RMS), (n) Secretariat of the IDNDR, (o) United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), (p) United Nations Center for Regional Development (UNCRD), (q) United States Geological Survey (USGS), and (r) World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO). Special acknowledgment is made to UNU for its generous support for the printing of the workshop proceedings.

Members of the Organizing and Advisory Committees are thanked for their tireless efforts in the formulation and production of the workshop program. These individuals include: Ron Abler, Fouad Bendimerad, Volodya Keilis Borok, Yuntai Chen, Luis Esteva, Claude Froidevaux, Anver Ghazi, Alan Green, Walter Hays, Tsuneo Katayama, Peter May, James "Ken" Mitchell, Guiliano Panza, Vincenzo Petrini, Haresh Shah, Shu Sun, Juha Uitto, Herman Verstappen, Friedemann Wenzel, Max Wyss and Jochen Zschau.

For further information regarding the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative, you may contact: Friedemann Wenzel (fwenzel@gpiwap1.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de ), Fouad Bendimerad (fouadb@riskinc.com ), Alan Green (alan@augias.ig.erdw.ethz.ch ) or Haresh Shah (shah@ce.stanford.edu )